China’s exports of grain oriented electrical steel continue to rise at an impressive pace. After strong growth in 2024, multiple new production lines for high-grade electrical steel are scheduled to start operation in 2025—including Baosteel’s ultra-high-grade facilities and Angang’s HiB-oriented silicon steel project. These additions will significantly strengthen China’s supply of CRGO steel, enabling the country to further expand its presence in global transformer steel markets.

With worldwide investments in renewable energy and power grid upgrades accelerating, China’s annual export volume of transformer core steel is projected to surpass 700,000 mt in 2025.

I. China Shifts from Import Reliance to Export Leadership

Over the past several years, China’s capacity for grain oriented electrical steel has grown at an unprecedented rate. TISCO’s 80,000 mt high-permeability line and Hunan Valin Steel’s 100,000 mt HiB line, both launched in early 2025, have effectively closed the gap between domestic supply and demand.

As a result, Chinese mills now possess enough capability to support both the domestic market and rapidly expanding overseas demand. With transformer manufacturing booming abroad, Chinese producers have increased international cooperation and export activities.

International producers are also adjusting to the market shift. In India, JSW Steel and JFE Steel jointly expanded their oriented silicon steel operations, investing 120 billion yen to raise India’s annual CRGO capacity to 350,000 mt. This reflects the global urgency around grid expansion and transformer replacement.

Source: General Administration of Customs

II. Import Trends: Smaller Overall Volume, Larger Share from Russia

1. Decline in Total Imports

China has long imported around 70,000–90,000 mt of grain oriented electrical steel each year. However, 2023 saw an exceptional spike to 161,600 mt when China implemented its national transformer energy-efficiency upgrade program, driving demand for high-grade HiB materials.

Because local HiB-grade technology was still ramping up at that time, imports surged. Once Chinese production lines for high-end CRGO steel were released in 2024, import volumes fell back to 72,800 mt.

In 2025, the first half saw imports rise to 47,100 mt (+31.2% YoY), largely due to strong demand for cost-competitive Russian high permeability steel. If this trend continues, China’s full-year imports may exceed 90,000 mt.

Source: General Administration of Customs

2. Import Sources Concentrating Toward Russia

Most of China’s imported transformer steel in 2025 came from Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan (China). Russia and Thailand posted major increases, up 216% and 108% respectively.

Since Japan, South Korea, and the EU have faced anti-dumping duties of 37.3%–46.3% since July 2022, Russian CRGO steel—free from these duties—has quickly become one of the most attractive options due to both cost and logistics advantages.

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

III. Export Momentum Strengthens as Europe and the U.S. Enter Large-Scale Transformer Replacement Cycles

1. Export Volumes Continue Double-Digit Growth

China’s CRGO exports jumped from 494,800 mt in 2023 to 666,300 mt in 2024, up 34.7% YoY. Several factors contributed to this:

• China’s high-end grain oriented electrical steel capacity expanded rapidly, enabling global supply.

• Private mills modernized their technology, offering fast delivery + competitive cost to markets such as India and Mexico.

• Under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, direct equipment exports to the U.S. are restricted, but Chinese silicon steel transformer core materials can still enter the U.S. through Mexico and Vietnam.

• Strong transformer replacement demand in Europe and the U.S.

  • EU Green Deal → requires inefficient units to be replaced before 2030

  • U.S. Grid Resilience initiatives → subsidies for transmission upgrades

In the first half of 2025, China exported 393,200 mt (+16% YoY). If the pace continues, exports will break 700,000 mt this year.

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

2. Export Destinations Become More Diverse

China’s transformer core steel was shipped mainly to India, Mexico, Turkey, Italy, the UAE, South Korea, and Brazil in 2025. Mexico, Italy, and Vietnam recorded the highest increases—71.8%, 61.9%, and 57.6%.

Mexico and Vietnam remain important “assembly gateways” for North American distribution due to U.S. trade restrictions.

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

IV. New Energy Infrastructure Pushes 2025 Export Forecast Even Higher

The surge in 2024 exports was supported by:

• Expansion of China’s top-grade CRGO steel capacity

• Rising global demand for transformers

• A more advanced and diversified product mix

• Coordinated domestic industrial policies

With Baosteel’s and Angang’s new lines ramping up in 2025, China will have even stronger output of oriented silicon steel, high permeability steel, and other high-efficiency materials required for transformer manufacturing.

As global energy transition projects accelerate—from renewable power bases to grid modernization—China’s exports of grain oriented electrical steel are expected to exceed 700,000 mt, solidifying China’s leading role in the global CRGO market.